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Is it time to forget the numbers game in favour of a more meaningful measurement of our social influence and should this be service specific?

When I wrote "The 3 R's of Influence" I suggested that the true measure of influence is a combination of reach, reputation and relevance.

Reputation is closely linked to identity and has, interestingly, been touched on elsewhere with regards to the Google patent for multiple identities or pseudonyms. Relevance is obvious - people will interact more with content that is relevant to their interests and current circumstances such as time or location.

Which leaves reach

Reach is a literal figure - an idealised "potential", a social pyramid scheme.

I wrote that:

Our reach is a combination of our direct first level connections and those secondary connections exposed to our content by re-shares, retweets, etc.

The important word here is "exposed" but this is often overlooked in the quest for quantitative scores rather than qualitative.

Evan Williams, Twitter co-founder, has remarked that reach on it's own isn't enough and that, perhaps, a new statistic should be used to more accurately measure influence on Twitter such as retweets.

We know that the number of followers isn't a reliable metric and reach on its own is an incongruous statistic. Klout attempts to nulify the impact of pure numbers by examining the ratio of engagement to audience - penalising those who amass followers without also increasing engagement - but even this isn't enough.

Just because someone retweets your content and they have 1000 followers, it doesn't mean that all those 1000 followers are effectivly "reached" by your tweet.

Visibility and exposure are key here - someone can only be influenced by something if they read it which is why Williams states the dream metric "is how many people saw your tweet". This means that they must be online and have had the initial tweet or any retweets visible in their timelines whilst "active" on the service.

If a tree falls in the woods...

Measuring

Since the acquisition of Trendly we have been waiting for Twitter to roll out first-party tweet analytics but this has only materialised for advertisers. I proposed that:

influence cannot be accurately measured externally from the data source as there is a limit to what can be gleaned from what is publicly available. The service hosting the data (be it Twitter, Facebook or Google) has a better understanding of exactly what happens to that data including other factors such as link tracking.

Williams suggests that part of the reason Twitter has been aggressively policing access to the API might be to ensure that it gets better data as it has been unable to effectively measure activity due to the use of third party clients.

The introduction of the built-in t.co URL shortening service enhances the ability to track reactions to tweets. Even if a tweet does not receive any replies or retweets Twitter is able to count the number of clicks the shortened address receives and, therefore, gain an indication of its popularity. This is an ideal source of data to feed the #discover tab and could contribute to an individuals influence on the site as well as providing useful metrics for advertisers.

Twitter Cards

The rise in social curation has lead to a number of curators becoming "social stars" in their own right with large followings and high influence scores. All too often this celebrity is at the expense of the content creator as links are wrapped in increasing levels of URL shorteners with no attribution provided.

Frequently, a curators tweets are reshared by their audience without those followers even visiting the link simply due to the "reputation" of the curator. The curator's influence is increased with no reference to those creating the content.

Twitter Cards will change this.

A quick test has shown that Twitter Cards will resolve the shortened URLs and still display the card information associated with the link which includes the Twitter username of the author, potentially increasing the likelihood of the originating author being followed rather than the curator.

It remains to be seen if Twitter Cards will provide any SEO benefits but I would imagine that having the rich snippet text associated with each tweet will enhance the effect of each external back link generated in this manner.

Time for change

We cannot rely on a single system to calculate influence for all and we also cannot rely on a single score to reflect our own influence and reputation across the whole social web; moving to service specific grading may be a viable alternative.

Each service host is far better placed to measure true activity within its own walls so, while they may not disappear completely, follower numbers might only contribute to an influence score for that particular network based on a wider range of factors.

Is it time for a change?

Advertising on Twitter continues to cause much debate, especially now the service is to target users by their interests. There are calls in some quarters for a freemium account model so that those who want to can pay not to be targeted but is this a viable option?

Employing our interest graph rather than our social graph is something that I've been talking about for a while and we are seeing shifts in this direction from across the social web.

Twitter's move to use its interest graph to target users for advertising is a long time coming but Twitter had to ensure it had sufficient data and a robust enough graph before it could reasonably expect advertisers to cough up their money on unproven technology.

It remains to be seen whether Twitter will enhance the user experience with the interest graph - it would make a lot of sense to do so as I have been saying for quite some time.

We have already seen the initial shoots of growth in this area (NASCAR, #discover to a degree) but there is a long way to go.

I said previously that the #discover tab needs to be tailored more to our interests so, perhaps, establishing a viable interest graph could power this at some point in future.

Is Freemium an option?

Twitter is criticised for going the advertising route with some saying they would be happy to pay a subscription to avoid the ads but Is this viable? While it may work in certain circumstances (mobile apps for example, but they are pulling from a central ad system) I don't believe it would on Twitter.

Each user that pays a subscription to Twitter reduces the value of advertising due to reduced impressions and resultant click-throughs. Will advertisers want to take the risk of targeting a smaller user base?

For Twitter itself the key question would be "do the subscription fees generated offset the drop in advertising revenue?"

How many?

Out of the millions of users on Twitter, how many are likely to be online during a campaign? How many of those would be willing to pay a subscription? How many of those would have been successfully targeted based on their interests and, finally, how many of those would actually interact with a promoted Tweet in some way? It's like a social Drake equation to calculate potential loss.

If the total number of subscribers is a very small percentage then, perhaps, Twitter could afford to offer a Freemium model but as the number of subscribers increases I feel it would lose its viability.

Deep impact?

Reducing the number of potential click-throughs by enabling an ad-free option could have deeper implications for the non-subscribers.

I have considered previously the possibility of promoted tweets being expanded by default to ensure that they stand out in our busy streams. In a relatively small survey most said that they would not be impressed by this but, as Twitter is now such a part of our lives, they would tolerate it.

Some users, however, responded that any such attempt by the network to force content upon them in this way would cause them to leave the service so this is another potential area of loss for both advertisers and Twitter itself.

It makes me wonder what other implications a freemium model might have for those who don't want to pay.

Lead image from Tsahi Levent-Levi.

Twitter is in the process of making a fundamental shift and it has been happening longer than you think.

The Twitter story continues apace and the debate over the rights or wrongs of the API changes will not be going away any time soon since Tumblr became the latest casualty of restrictions on the "find your friend" functionality.

Twitter's decisions, and overall attitude with regards to its API, are attracting much criticism from developers of applications and services across its ecosystem but the various threads to this story are beginning to weave together to form a cohesive picture.

The graph

Dustin Curtis, creator of the invitation only blogging platform Svbtle, has put a face to the points that some, including myself, have been pondering lately when he says that most users "have no incentive to use Twitter outside of the value of its graph" - in other words, they use it to follow their interests without necessarily contributing to the conversation or providing their own content.

This time last year 40% of users didn't tweet, and the likelihood is that this has not altered very much, but this is not initially an issue as Twitter relies on its users for traffic and the potential for clicking relevant ads as well as for filling it with content. While this arrangement may have been fine for a while, the proliferation of other successful web services such as Instagram and Tumblr has meant that there are more places for people to find the information they are looking for.

As Dustin explains, if you can use the find your friends API to export your social graph to another service, which also has the ability to provide information in a more appealing fashion, then this could be potentially very damaging. Is it the case that Twitter is now seeing the "non-tweeters" export their social graph and never look back?

Welcome to the visual web, join us or perish

At the risk of raking over the same ground Twitter needs to change; the feed is dead! In an increasingly visual web services must adapt in order to stay relevant and desirable which is why I have been saying for months that Twitter should pivot:

Now that our feed is predominantly awash in a sea of links it is not a very inviting place. Perhaps the time has come for Twitter to move away from this means of display and instead use a new enhanced #discover tab as the primary view when arriving at the site.

The network must give the silent users a reason to invest more in the network and possibly even coax them in to tweeting by making it feel like that's not actually what they are doing - presenting information in a different manner and making it feel as though users are commenting on a story may be an effective way of doing this. They must be given a voice and persuaded that it is what they really wanted all along.

Is this going to turn some elements of Twitter into a tabloid newspaper? Quite possibly, but it will also accelerate the shift towards being even more interest based. Just as medium is looking to focus on the topic before the author so Twitter can focus on the "story" rather than the individual tweeters in an attempt to become the news destination of choice.

Channels

My original proposal for "Twitter Channels" in March last year suggested that anyone could register a specific topic in order to gather relevant tweets in a single, subject specific stream. The network has since introduced the concept of "Event Pages" to achieve something similar - albeit with a different method of execution. Maybe we won't see Twitter allowing individuals to claim their "page" but it is bound to extend the reach of this feature beyond events such as NASCAR or the Olympics towards brands (take $cashtags as a starting point) and people (read celebrities).

Everything points towards Twitter placing a much greater emphasis on its identity as a news and media network with the movement away from the main stream as the focal point. While we will still be able to interaction with the feed the "tweeters" will become secondary to the silent majority using the service primarily as a means of consumption. Locking those users and their social graphs within Twitters walls ensures that they keep coming back but this cannot be at the expense of those who provide the content by way of tweets.

I believe we are witnessing a fundamental shift on the part of Twitter and that is has actually been happening for longer than most people think.

Image by Jeremy Brooks

Are we about to see big changes at Twitter? A single tweet from a member of staff can send the social web in to a frenzy but is there good reason?

See below for update

Back in February I wrote that Twitter felt like it was stuck between two ideals: trying to portray itself as an information network while having to honour its social roots.

After the launch of the #discover tab it seemed that the company was finally trying to embrace those users who only consume and never tweet, the lurkers. I predicted that #discover would quickly iterate and, using the knowledge and talent from the Summify acquisition, could become a personalised discovery and recommendation engine which could potentially alter the way we use Twitter.

#discover has, indeed, iterated and the emphasis on personal is starting to come through but it seems there is still so much Twitter could do.

Has the moment arrived when #discover will finally realise its potential?

Search and discover

Pankaj Gupta (who heads up the Personalization and Recommender Systems group at Twitter) tweeted a teasing snippet which could portend a massive change for the social/information network:

https://twitter.com/pankaj/status/221052819191504896

Search is one area where Twitter is consistently lambasted as it is impossible to find items older than just a couple of days (sometimes even less) so any improvements here will be most welcome. The inclusion of discovery in his tweet, however, indicates a distinction between the two that warrants mention and I can't help feel that #discover is to be enhanced and that could kick start a significant change on Twitter?

It is reasonably safe to assume that Twitter search will finally be improved but I also hope that the true impact of the Summify acquisition is about to be felt.

Delayed for a reason

Twitter has been on the offensive recently with regards to enforcing its image - be it the new logo or ensuring everyone knows exactly how tweets should look, or a reminder that developers are at the companies whim when it comes to using the API - but I has been criticised for demanding action when none has been forthcoming from itself.

If big changes are coming in search and discovery then this would explain the delay in releasing new versions of its own clients; why make minor cosmetic changes when you can wait to include much more important things later on.

I think we could get a nice surprise.

Change afoot

Claiming that upcoming changes to search and discovery are going to have an enormous impact that "few understand today" is incredibly bold and must demonstrate a seismic shift or potentially leave both Pankaj and Twitter with egg on their faces. Nothing short of radical improvements and, hopefully, new functionality will open the company up to ridicule for overstatement.

As I have said previously, I believe that Twitter could benefit from a shake-up which makes it easier for users to find items of interest and, quite possibly, encourage the large number of silent users to start tweeting. Change is a dangerous game, however, and there is a fine line between embracing additional users and alienating the ones you already have.

Fortunately, many are heavily invested in the service and its ecosystem so, just has been proven with Facebook, change can be accommodated and users adapt rather than attempt to rebuild their social circles elsewhere.

And, the winner is...

It remains to be seen if the company agrees and feels it's time for that shake-up or if we are merely reading too much in to a single tweet from someone proud of their team.

Update: new search features

Twitter have announced the new search features over at their blog which build on the recently added related query suggestions, spelling corrections and more relevant search results.

The new features are going down well and include:

• search autocomplete
• results with both real names and usernames, and
• results filtering to show top tweets, all tweets or just those from people you follow

Why not discuss this post on Google+

With Twitter to soon welcome its 500 millionth account is it time for the service to change to better reflect its new purpose?

Despite our best efforts to cling to the past we must finally concede that Twitter is no longer a social network - or that aspect at least now plays second fiddle. It feels as though the service is caught between two ideals - stuck in transition like a butterfly stuck in its chrysalis.

The company has positioned Twitter as an information network but many still think of it as social. We must wonder if this will be a barrier to its progression as a service?

Change

There have been a number of changes such as the #discover tab which promote the idea of it being a place to find things but, conversely, you also get the mixed message of @connect which aims to improve our social experience; each tab is equally visible but @connect is listed first - not the action you would expect. 

Admittedly, any change has to be gradual in order to keep us along for the ride but change must come.

For twitter to be taken seriously in its new, self-styled role I think it needs to move away from the feed driven beast we have all known for the past 6 years.

Don't talk, discover

#discover was a bold move as it was a departure from the status quo. I have said previously that the acquisition of Summify was a perfect opportunity to really enhance this by making it more personal (especially with SPYW getting a lot of attention). Twitter needs to step up to the plate and make this happen. Rather than getting standard "stories" or location-based trends our experience should be better tailored to our own usage:

• what is in our profile?
• who do we follow and how are they described?
• what hashtags do we use?
• what brands do we follow or interact with?

Combine personalised information with key trending topics and you would have a powerful tool to keep people coming back to the service.

The feed is dead

Now that our feed is predominantly awash in a sea of links it is not a very inviting place. Perhaps the time has come for Twitter to move away from this means of display and instead use a new enhanced #discover tab as the primary view when arriving at the site.

I wrote in March last year that Twitter could go beyond the hashtag and use a form of channels to better facilitate topic based discussion. With a main news view this might be a perfect time to make such a move. With increasing usage of Twitter to discuss trending topics, sports events and "Social TV" we could be approaching the time when conversation on Twitter will occur away from the primary view and be mainly based on what we discover?

All change

Could Twitter actually become a place where we "consume" news first and talk about it after? Is this too radical a shift from the service we all know and love or is it a logical conclusion based on recent events?

Why not discuss the original post on Google+

Image by Odd_dog