We're definitely in the honeymoon period as you suggest. We're in the boom, with everyone piling in with the *hope* that they can take advantage of the initial media interest and be a success. It's fractured and fragmented. Basically this is the Web 2.0 version of the initial .com boom, and probably with even less of an idea of how to monetise the services and businesses. It's fascinating quite how obvious the parallels are and how it seems that people are falling into exactly the same trap again.

You're right. The success of the most social networking tools is going to be achieving a functionality outside the early adopter market. I'm not entirely sure how many of them are even thinking about that. They have to be incredibly simple to use, almost entirely intuitive, and offer value to all,.